A Presidential Do Over

A second term with an outcome that is very much unclear

I had friends and family who were thrilled about yesterday’s Inauguration.  They hope President Trump prioritizes economic security and safety in America’s cities, revitalizing America’s manufacturing base, including in places like my hometown of Galesburg, Ill. 

I had friends and family who were terrified by yesterday’s Inauguration.  Who worry that it looked like a scene out of a dystopian novel, and see an era of unchecked, emboldened power arriving. 

And I had friends and family who were indifferent — who just ignored it was happening. Who chose to tune out rather than tune in.  

In some ways I’m not sure any President could overcome that divide. We are living a divide that has been manufactured with digital information ecosystems that feed us self-fulfilling information, in which we are right and have always been right in our strong beliefs. In that world the other side is always wrong.  

And in that divide, we have an incoming President who promises to bring about “a revolution of common sense.”  When most of us don’t feel we have that much in common.

Keep people guessing 

When President Trump won the Presidency in 2016, an outsider with no political experience, I said two things in a podcast interview: 

1. I wished him well.  Having seen the job of the President of the United States up close, I would never wish ill on anyone fulfilling that job.  

2. President Trump was the least dogmatic of any Presidential candidate I’d seen, so I didn’t know what to expect. 

And to a large part those two things predictions still hold true.  I don’t know what to expect — and frankly no one does.

Since his victory in 2016 there have been many political insiders and outsiders who have worked with President Trump.  All have different feedback.  But almost to a tee, they say they didn’t always know what to expect out of him in meetings.  

One of President Trump’s loyal advisors told me he loved working with him because he thought in that role, he had the latitude to try outside of the box solutions in a Washington that was always inside the box.  He could present ideas that had seemed unusual, but he knew to be effective, and would have a sounding board. 

Another of President Trump’s former advisors told me that it was tough inside the White House because warring factions among the team, those who were trying to seek approval from the boss, often derailed what they thought was effective action. 

In the midst of the campaign we heard from a host of senior advisors some including Military Brass warning of what a President Trump second term could be.

So what do we expect this time?  In many ways President Trump’s Inauguration speech was much the same of what he delivered in 2016.  He said he wants to see a Golden Age of America, one in which we explore Mars, regain ground against China — specifically in areas like the Panama Canal — he wants to build military capacity but not use force.  He spoke again about our hollowed out manufacturing cities, with the desire to bring them back to life.  He spoke of tariffs that he has long believed will do just that. 

He set a high bar for expectations. He promised to change maps (not sure who was lobbying for the Gulf of America versus Gulf of Mexico but ok…), he promised to expand territory and that this era would benefit all.  Can he get it done?  He has all three branches of government (though a slim majority in the House), so I suppose he can try. But all we really know for sure is he certainly loves to talk about it.

Is there a shared truth?

For the friends who supported President Trump wholeheartedly, they rejoiced yesterday, following news threads like that on Breitbart that promised we were entering a golden era, where the corruption (they said of the Biden family) was left behind, and now they have “We the People” at the helm.  They watched live and were reassured.

For the friends who were terrified of what’s to come, many also watched live. Elon Musk, the world’s richest man who isn’t afraid to use his tremendous power to push his agenda, gave a weird salute that many feared had Nazi roots.  They watched the billionaires and elites in the audience and thought the powerful are only getting more powerful. They worry about the pending actions – including immigration raids that he has promised — and they feel they don’t recognize America.

For those who tuned out, some felt zapped just by any stray news coverage, feel they don’t have the energy or can’t make a difference, no matter what’s handed down. 

And the question is still: What will actually be handed down? What policies will the incoming President enact that can withstand legal challenges and inner party or inner interest fights?

A do-over 

It’s a unique position for the President to be in, having been benched for four years only to come back — with a larger mandate and a clearer path to enact his agenda. A do-over of sorts.

I’ve been thinking a lot about what would have happened in that situation if it had been President Obama, in an alternative world, lost to President Mitt Romney, and then comes back to power.  Would he have pressed further - for a single payer healthcare system?  For significant education reform?  Or would he have tried to govern to the center to not see the pendulum swing quite so starkly.  I don’t know. 

That’s the point: No one knows exactly how this will go. If they tell you they do, don’t believe them.